A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation          下载免费PDF全文

Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.  相似文献   

Permanent earthquake‐induced actions in buried pipelines: Numerical modeling and experimental verification     

《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(4):966-987

Buried pipelines are often constructed in seismic and other geohazard areas, where severe ground deformations may induce severe strains in the pipeline. Calculation of those strains is essential for assessing pipeline integrity, and therefore, the development of efficient models accounting for soil‐pipe interaction is required. The present paper is aiming at developing efficient tools for calculating ground‐induced deformation on buried pipelines, often triggered by earthquake action, in the form of fault rupture, liquefaction‐induced lateral spreading, soil subsidence, or landslide. Soil‐pipe interaction is investigated by using advanced numerical tools, which employ solid elements for the soil, shell elements for the pipe, and account for soil‐pipe interaction, supported by large‐scale experiments. Soil‐pipe interaction in axial and transverse directions is evaluated first, using results from special‐purpose experiments and finite element simulations. The comparison between experimental and numerical results offers valuable information on key material parameters, necessary for accurate simulation of soil‐pipe interaction. Furthermore, reference is made to relevant provisions of design recommendations. Using the finite element models, calibrated from these experiments, pipeline performance at seismic‐fault crossings is analyzed, emphasizing on soil‐pipe interaction effects in the axial direction. The second part refers to full‐scale experiments, performed on a unique testing device. These experiments are modeled with the finite element tools to verify their efficiency in simulating soil‐pipe response under landslide or strike‐slip fault movement. The large‐scale experimental results compare very well with the numerical predictions, verifying the capability of the finite element models for accurate prediction of pipeline response under permanent earthquake‐induced ground deformations.  相似文献   

SIMULATION STUDY OF ROAD-CUT EFFECTS ON SLOPE STABILITY     

CHEN Xiao-li  WANG Ming-ming  ZHANG Ling 《地震地质》2018,40(6):1390-1401

Landslides and rock falls along the highway are common geological hazards in Southwest China. As an influencing factor on potential landslides behavior, roads or distance to roads have been successfully used in landslide susceptibility assessments in mountainous area. However, the relationship between the road-cut and the slope stability is not clear. Therefore, we performed two-dimensional slope stability calculation using the general limit equilibrium (GLE)method incorporated in the software SLOPE/W of GeoStudio for stability analysis of slopes. Our studies show that the man-made roads influence on the slope stability mainly exists in two ways:One is to create a new steep slope, which will result in rock falls and shallow landslides along the roads; the other is to influence the stability of the original slope, which will result in comparatively huge landslides. For the latter, our simulation study reveals that the road location, namely at which part of a natural slope to construct a road is important for the slope stability. For a natural slope with a potential slip surface, if a road is constructed at or near the slope toe where the potential slip surface surpasses, it will greatly degrade the slope's factor of safety (Fs) and make the slope unstable; however, if a rode-cut is near the top of the slope, it will increase the slope's Fs and make the slope more stable. The safety location is different for different slope angle, steeper slope needs a higher location for a safety road-cut in comparison with gentle slopes. Moreover, the slope stability decreases when loading a seismic force and it varies with the slope angle. Firstly, the Fs decreases when the slope angle increasing, and when the slope angle reaches 45°, the Fs then becomes greater with the slope angle increasing.  相似文献   

窑洞外形特征对结构抗震性能影响研究          下载免费PDF全文

王飞剑  刘如山  马朝晖 《地震工程学报》2018,40(5):910-918

调查发现山西北部农村地区农居窑洞多是独立式土坯窑洞,结构主要受力体系是土坯砌体砌筑拱结构,其建造无统一标准,外形样式存在差异。由于拱结构的内力分布对外形尺寸变化比较敏感,为研究窑洞外形特征对结构抗震性能影响,建立相应的有限元模型进行计算分析,对比不同外形特征窑洞在地震作用下的损伤情况,并结合历史震害,指出窑洞结构的薄弱位置。研究结果表明覆土较厚的窑洞容易损伤,连拱孔数较多窑洞的两侧位置更容易发生破坏,拱的曲线形状对结构抗震性能有一定影响,合理拱曲线窑洞的抗震性能优于一般形状窑洞。  相似文献   

2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震前地震应变场分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

罗国富  刘忠旺  丁凤和  马禾青  杨明芝 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1322-1330

以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量，通过自然正交函数展开方法，计算2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震前的地震应变场，提取出震前时间因子的异常变化。计算结果发现应变场前4个时间因子在震前1~3年的中短期异常并不显著，只有第2个和第4个时间因子震前有小幅度的异常变化，分析其原因，时间因子可能受到2008年汶川8.0级地震和2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前大幅度异常的影响。与时间因子对应的空间等值线形成局部应变高值异常危险区，可能是2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震和2017年九寨沟7.0级地震空间异常的中短期特征。再对比九寨沟7.0级地震前后与松潘-平武7.2级双震的空间异常随时间演变，分析异常发展变化模式的差异，最后应用地震资料的累积频次从物理角度解释异常形成的机制。  相似文献   

我国北方农牧交错带西段退耕对土壤保持功能影响研究     

殷小菡  孙希华  徐新良  张雪艳  陈德超 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(12):1721-1732

退耕还林（草）等生态工程对区域用地结构及生态系统服务功能产生了重要影响。本研究基于RUSLE模型,并辅以遥感监测与GIS空间分析方法,对北方农牧交错带西段2000-2015年退耕状况及其引起的土壤保持功能变化分3个时段（2000-2005年、2005-2010年及2010-2015年）进行了探究。结果表明：北方农牧交错带西段地区2000-2015年耕地面积净减少1663.83 km²,以转为林地、草地、建设用地为主,其中耕地转林、草地净减少面积为1113.64 km²,草地和未利用地是新增耕地的主要来源;15年间土壤保持功能提升显著,退耕还林（草）工程的实施使土壤保持量增加了56.50×10⁴ t,2005-2010年由退耕所带来的土壤保持增加量在3段时期中最高;不同坡度等级的生态退耕引起的土壤保持增加量差别较大,总体随着坡度升高呈下降趋势,但在25°以上的陡坡耕地由退耕还林（草）带来的土壤保持效益又有所升高。研究对于评估北方农牧交错带西段地区实施退耕还林（草）等工程的生态效益具有重要意义,并能为区域生态保护与修复工程的建设规划提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of mid‐Holocene hydroclimate in western North America          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas Wayne Hermann  Jessica Leigh Oster  Daniel Enrique Ibarra 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(4):421-434

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Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses          下载免费PDF全文

J.C. Li  N.N. Li  S.B. Chai  H.B. Li 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(1):95-109

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.  相似文献   

Fault geometrical model of Dujiangyan section in Longmenshan fault zone          下载免费PDF全文

Hu-Rong Duan  Sheng-Lei Chen  Run Li  Quan-Chao Yan 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(3):126-136

The focal mechanism solution on the seismic fault plane can reflect the geometric and kinematic characteristics of faults, and it is an important way to further study the fine structure of fault plane. From the focal mechanism solution of the earthquakes around the Dujiangyan fault in Longmenshan fault zone, we derived the average dip angle of Dujiangyan fault is 45.1° based on the seismic moment tensor theory. In order to refine the fault geometry structure, this paper decomposed it into multiple sub-fault planes along the length and width of the fault plane and forms a number of models A13, B13, A23 a, A23 b, A23 c, B23 a,B23 b and B23 c, then calculated the sub-fault's dip of each model. In order to clarify exactly which one of the fault models is closest to the real fault model, the fault slip was carried out for each model in turn, then compared the surface displacement of each model with GPS observations. The results show that B23 c model with high dip in shallow and small dip in deep is the best model, the lengths of each subfault of Dujiangyan fault from south to north are 33 km, 21 km and 46 km, respectively. When the depth of the fault bottom is about 11 km, the dip angles are 70.56°, 67.41° and 45.55°.When the depth of the fault bottom is about 30 km, The fault dip angles are 44.55°, 29.18° and 44.25°.  相似文献   

Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas V.Sarlis  Panayiotis A.Varotsos  Efthimios S.Skordas  Seiya Uyeda  Jacques Zlotnicki  Toshiyasu Nagao  Anatoly Rybin  Mary S.Lazaridou-Varotsos  Konstantina A.Papadopoulou 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(1):44-51

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos(VAN) method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals(SES). Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.  相似文献